Monday, January 15, 2007


Is Nate Kaeding a Pro-Bowler? Yes and no. He is, but he really shouldn't be. I was planning on writing this as soon as Pro-Bowl teams came out, then forgot about it... and then yesterday happened. That he came up short on a 54 yard field goal is excusable... let's just ignore the fact that he had eight miles per hour of wind at his back. That's a TON of wind. Second, it speaks volumes of your kicking ability when your head coach doesn't have the confidence to let you kick a 47 yard FG in the 1st quarter (once again with the wind on your side). Well, enough of this 2 kick sample size. On to the real stuff:

Order: Player (TEAM): M/A; PCT; 0-30; 30-40; 40+; LG
M. Stover (BAL): 28/30; 93.3%; 12/13; 9/9; 7/8; 52
J. Elam (DEN):
--27/29; 93.1%; 10/10; 10/10; 7/9; 51
N. Kaeding(SD): 26/29; 89.3%; 7/7; 11/12; 8/10; 54

Stover and Elam have both made more field goals than Kaeding, attempted either the same amount or just one more, and have higher kicking percentages. The breakdown by yardage reveals nothing sinister working against Kaeding.

So what gives? Let's pretend we're the voters for a minute. There are two things we love in life. Wins and clutchness. M. Stover and J. Elam both had one game winning FG apiece this year and Kaeding had 0. So... that leaves us with just the all-powerful stat of Wins, which is the only stat voters could have based their decision on.

Kaeding wins 14 to Stover's 13 to Elam's 9. Players, fans, and coaches who voted, you are retarded.


Laser Stream said...

Obviously Kaeding was probably not the right guy, but I will point a couple things out:

1. He was going against the wind in the 1st quarter, and it was stronger than 8mph then (12-15 if I remember correctly).

2. Coaches, players, and fans (!) vote for Pro Bowlers, not the AP.

3. The stats are close enough for those three kickers that I don't think it would be that bad of a decision to pick any of these guys. We're talking about, in many cases, a single miss being the difference. Also, Stover and Elam have more attempts from inside 30 yards (obviously Kaeding wouldn't have as many because of the Red Zone monster that is LaDainian Tomlinson). Kickers are more likely to make the short ones, and that likely contributes to Stover and Elam's higher overall percentage.

4. If I had to pick a Pro Bowl kicker, I'd go with Stover. But I'm not mad about Kaeding getting selected.

Laser Stream said...

Unrelated: "John Madden has never been part of a Pro Bowl broadcast because he has a tremendous fear of flying."